Is it a Bubble or Embrionic Growth?

My style of growth investing centers around the question in the title above. For example how many people back in late 2004 thought AAPL was a bubble?

A bubble that was by the end of 2004 was at all time highs and was up by an order of magnitude. I know people who complained about exactly that. “It’s up 100%! the investment window has closed. Well everyone knows it peaked at 200 two years later. Fell to 100 and rose to 700 four year after that. In total it was a growth story that ballooned by two orders of magnitude, that’s 1000%.

That’s what embryonic growth is — cascading epidemics at their start.

What makes an AAPL or an MSTR?

More importantly what makes you the investor that finds the next tidal wave of cash that was Apple’s growth story.

My approach attacks this from both ends. The very long view “MACRO VIEW” and the very short view “QUANTUM VIEW”.

A PORTION OF THE MACRO VIEW
One of the things that I focus on is where we are in the “generational investment cycles” that last 15-20 years. For example back in during the last secular bear cycle (1965-1985) pieces of the puzzle where coming together for the beginning of personal computing, computer networking  revolution that spilled and splashed money everywhere for the next 15 years.

If you missed that tsunami of money don’t worry the world always wants something badly and there are always a few clever people who are able to give the world what its craving.

These are the types of companies that the QUANTUM VIEW zeros in on. Once you have found them, lift your head and see where we are in the times to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

  • ENERGY
  • BIOTECH
  • 3D PRINTING
  • TESLA/MUSK

Companies in these sectors are already have potential customers lining up and even better investors with billions clamoring to be partners.

YOU WANT TO INVEST IN COMPANIES LIKE THESE Where customers, partners and investors (basically the world) want to give them money in exchange for what they offer.

THE QUANTUM VIEW
Very view stocks have coherent price patterns that are also strongly biased biased to the upside. Its my hope that all my stocks have this “quantum signature”.  Take a look as a couple of stocks pop in my model account.

SCOTTRADE20130425


Albany Molecular Research, Inc
A huge jump 12.25%
Notice how the SHANNON signal© looks as the noise level dropped while the price pattern becomes more coherent.AMRI20130425



Nautilus, Inc.
What does the world want? To be healthier without the gym fees.
The SHANNON signal© shows super low noise levels which you can almost see in the tightness of the price patterns.

Note the change in the SHANNON signal© in Jan-2013 as it was very noisy while under accumulation but as soon as price picked up the noise level dropped.
NLS20130425



 ISIS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
How bad does the world want what ISIS has or PCYC? (read the following)

“Under the terms of the agreement, Roche will make an upfront payment of $30 million to Isis, with total payments related to license fee and pre- and post-licensing milestone payments reaching potentially $362 million, including up to $80 million in potential commercial milestone payments. In addition, Isis will receive tiered royalties on sales of the drugs.”
http://www.4-traders.com/ISIS-PHARMACEUTICALS-INC-9734/news/ISIS-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-Roche-and-Isis-Pharmaceuticals-form-alliance-for-Huntington-s-disease-16610595/
“Pharmacyclics and Janssen’s agreement dates back to Dec 2011. The companies are collaborating for the global development and commercialization of ibrutinib. In addition to receiving a $150 million upfront payment from Janssen, Pharmacyclics is entitled to receive another $825 million on the achievement of development and regulatory milestones.

On Aug 1, 2012, Pharmacyclics had announced the enrollment of the fifth patient in a phase III study, RESONATE, which is conducted to evaluate ibrutinib versus ofatumumab in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL. This led to the first milestone payment of $50 million for Pharmacyclics from Janssen.

On Aug 20, 2012, Pharmacyclics became eligible to receive its second milestone payment of $50 million as a result of enrolling the fifth patient in a phase II study, SPARK, which is conducted to evaluate ibrutinib in patients suffering from relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma (MCL).

The third milestone payment of $50 million was triggered on Oct 15, 2012, when Pharmacyclics announced the enrollment of the fifth patient in an international, randomized phase III clinical trial of ibrutinib in combination with bendamustine and rituximab in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL.

Thus, out of $825 million, $200 million of milestones have already been earned by Pharmacyclics to date.”

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/pharmacyclics-earns-4th-milestone-analyst-blog-cm236908#ixzz2RWeXQG8W

I  have a motto on Stock Twits
“I am able to consistently place my positions between exponential business growth and everyone else. The corporate customers — day traders — fund managers and Wall St. All must contribute to my accounts….”
Why can I say this?
I am a partner with awesome companies with sweet deals like these!

ENJOY!

ISIS20130425

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