The STRONG MONEY Buying Campain of CIMT

ACTS ONE & TWO
BUYING & SHORTING TO ACCUMULATE

Sometimes the battle is not a conflict of opinion between bulls and bears but rather the “feeding frenzy” between STRONG and HOT MONEY when they are on the same side. STRONG MONEY affects the supply and demand of a stock where as HOT MONEY greases the skids with liquidity. When they are feeding on the same side of a market the results can be explosive like with CIMT earlier this year.

TIME FRAME

FEB-2012 to MAY-2012

JUN-2012 to SEPT-2012

SHANNON SIGNAL

QUITE

NOISY

PRICE UP FROM 3 TO 5 DOWN FROM 5 TO 3
NON-RANDOM CONSEC DAYS Marks transition from noisy   to quiet in SHANNON signal Marks transition from quiet   to noisy in SHANNON signal
Marks transition of UPWARD   PRICE from 3 to 5
price hits 52 week high
Marks transition of DOWNWARD   PRICE from 5 to 3

INTENTION

BUY TO ACCUMULATE

SHORT TO ACCUMULATE

  CIMT20130428-1
STRONG MONEY Playbook

Having bought steadily by STRONG MONEY the first half of year the price hits a 52 week high which then brings CIMT to the radar of HOT MONEY. That being the case the price trend is broken by STRONG MONEY and buying to accumulate ends while discouraging HOT MONEY from following.

Since STRONG MONEY had not gotten its fill of the stock, and cannot by buy more without running the price up on itself. STRONG MONEY switches to the shorting-to-accumulate phase in which the stock will be bought at lower and lower prices without running the price up.

ACT THREE
HOT MONEY LETS PRICE RUN AWAY

TIME FRAME

SEPT-2012 to JAN-2013

SHANNON SIGNAL

TRANSITIONS TO QUIET

PRICE UP FROM 3 TO 7.5
NON-RANDOM CONSEC DAYS Marks transition from noisy  to quite in SHANNON signal
Marks transition of UPWARD  PRICE from 3 to 7.5

INTENTION

BUY TO ACCUMULATE
(PRICE RUNS AWAY)

CIMT20130428-1B
During the 2nd buy-to-accumulate the price gets away from STRONG MONEY as hot money quickly begins bidding the price up. Share supply has dwindled and any sustained bias in buying or selling has a demontratable influnce on price. By now participants have been watching DDD rise dramatically and the 3D printing story was getting out CIMT could not be contained.

ACT FOUR
STRONG MONEY GETS FILL AT LOWER PRICE

TIME FRAME

JAN-2013 to PRESENT

SHANNON SIGNAL

TRANSITION TO NOISE

PRICE HAMMERED FROM 12.5 TO 6
NON-RANDOM CONSEC DAYS Marks transition from quite to noisy in SHANNON signal
MAR-2013 Marks pounding DOWNWARD PRICE in from 12.5 to 6

INTENTION

SHORT TO ACCUMULATE
SHORT TO ISSUE SHARES @ LOWER PRICE

In April 2013 CIMT had plans to issue over several hundred million dollars in stock that would NOT be at $12.5 or higher. Thus CIMT and primary holders being the STRONG MONEY hammered the stock price from $12.50 to $6.00 reverting the grow slope to acceptable levels for the issuance on new shares.

The only question now is…
“Has STRONG MONEY gotten its fill?”

CIMT20130428-2
ENJOY!!!

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Is it a Bubble or Embrionic Growth?

My style of growth investing centers around the question in the title above. For example how many people back in late 2004 thought AAPL was a bubble?

A bubble that was by the end of 2004 was at all time highs and was up by an order of magnitude. I know people who complained about exactly that. “It’s up 100%! the investment window has closed. Well everyone knows it peaked at 200 two years later. Fell to 100 and rose to 700 four year after that. In total it was a growth story that ballooned by two orders of magnitude, that’s 1000%.

That’s what embryonic growth is — cascading epidemics at their start.

What makes an AAPL or an MSTR?

More importantly what makes you the investor that finds the next tidal wave of cash that was Apple’s growth story.

My approach attacks this from both ends. The very long view “MACRO VIEW” and the very short view “QUANTUM VIEW”.

A PORTION OF THE MACRO VIEW
One of the things that I focus on is where we are in the “generational investment cycles” that last 15-20 years. For example back in during the last secular bear cycle (1965-1985) pieces of the puzzle where coming together for the beginning of personal computing, computer networking  revolution that spilled and splashed money everywhere for the next 15 years.

If you missed that tsunami of money don’t worry the world always wants something badly and there are always a few clever people who are able to give the world what its craving.

These are the types of companies that the QUANTUM VIEW zeros in on. Once you have found them, lift your head and see where we are in the times to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

  • ENERGY
  • BIOTECH
  • 3D PRINTING
  • TESLA/MUSK

Companies in these sectors are already have potential customers lining up and even better investors with billions clamoring to be partners.

YOU WANT TO INVEST IN COMPANIES LIKE THESE Where customers, partners and investors (basically the world) want to give them money in exchange for what they offer.

THE QUANTUM VIEW
Very view stocks have coherent price patterns that are also strongly biased biased to the upside. Its my hope that all my stocks have this “quantum signature”.  Take a look as a couple of stocks pop in my model account.

SCOTTRADE20130425


Albany Molecular Research, Inc
A huge jump 12.25%
Notice how the SHANNON signal© looks as the noise level dropped while the price pattern becomes more coherent.AMRI20130425



Nautilus, Inc.
What does the world want? To be healthier without the gym fees.
The SHANNON signal© shows super low noise levels which you can almost see in the tightness of the price patterns.

Note the change in the SHANNON signal© in Jan-2013 as it was very noisy while under accumulation but as soon as price picked up the noise level dropped.
NLS20130425



 ISIS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
How bad does the world want what ISIS has or PCYC? (read the following)

“Under the terms of the agreement, Roche will make an upfront payment of $30 million to Isis, with total payments related to license fee and pre- and post-licensing milestone payments reaching potentially $362 million, including up to $80 million in potential commercial milestone payments. In addition, Isis will receive tiered royalties on sales of the drugs.”
http://www.4-traders.com/ISIS-PHARMACEUTICALS-INC-9734/news/ISIS-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-Roche-and-Isis-Pharmaceuticals-form-alliance-for-Huntington-s-disease-16610595/
“Pharmacyclics and Janssen’s agreement dates back to Dec 2011. The companies are collaborating for the global development and commercialization of ibrutinib. In addition to receiving a $150 million upfront payment from Janssen, Pharmacyclics is entitled to receive another $825 million on the achievement of development and regulatory milestones.

On Aug 1, 2012, Pharmacyclics had announced the enrollment of the fifth patient in a phase III study, RESONATE, which is conducted to evaluate ibrutinib versus ofatumumab in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL. This led to the first milestone payment of $50 million for Pharmacyclics from Janssen.

On Aug 20, 2012, Pharmacyclics became eligible to receive its second milestone payment of $50 million as a result of enrolling the fifth patient in a phase II study, SPARK, which is conducted to evaluate ibrutinib in patients suffering from relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma (MCL).

The third milestone payment of $50 million was triggered on Oct 15, 2012, when Pharmacyclics announced the enrollment of the fifth patient in an international, randomized phase III clinical trial of ibrutinib in combination with bendamustine and rituximab in patients with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL.

Thus, out of $825 million, $200 million of milestones have already been earned by Pharmacyclics to date.”

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/pharmacyclics-earns-4th-milestone-analyst-blog-cm236908#ixzz2RWeXQG8W

I  have a motto on Stock Twits
“I am able to consistently place my positions between exponential business growth and everyone else. The corporate customers — day traders — fund managers and Wall St. All must contribute to my accounts….”
Why can I say this?
I am a partner with awesome companies with sweet deals like these!

ENJOY!

ISIS20130425

Everybody Knows it’s a Top

Even I thought the markets had topped three weeks ago, or a least I feared it, and did not want to give back too much of what I had won. I got stopped out of and/or sold everything. I even put on a healthy dose of SPXU and I did it while considering myself a long term investor.

However the markets quickly told me that this was a correction as quality stocks especially Dow stocks began advancing.  Also my canary in a coal mine SPXU was not providing a clear profit signal.

So what do you do? Well I used the opportunity to rebalance and spread my positions out since I was ahead. It felt like it was too soon to flipflop yet again like switch on a micro processor YES/NO/YES/NO/YES/NO. But I felt that the markets kind of tricked me into cash and being short thus I wasn’t going to stay scared AND wrong for long.

Well three weeks later… my QUANTUM and MACRO DOW THEORIES are holding up, by pointing me in the right directions and even helping see through the market’s noise.

So here we are heavy in biotech and 3D printing.

Scottrade20130423

PowerSecure International, Inc.
Beautiful chart note the spike of CONSEC UPDAYS as the stock punched through 7-7.5 pivot. It then rested for 2 months neatly at the 8.75 pivot, before punching through 10 to come to rest at 12.5 followed by the nice pop today.

Also note that the SHANNON signal is getting clearer as the RANDOM WALKS ON PRICE NODES are confirming price.

POWR20130423

Albany Molecular Research, Inc.
Another step to step from one pivot to the next each time the price was driven up on CONSEC UPDAYS. Note the last two CONSEC UPDAYS as the price attains the 5 dollar pivot then the 10 dollar pivot.

Also note that the SHANNON signal is getting clearer as the RANDOM WALKS ON PRICE NODES are confirming price.

AMRI20130423

ISIS Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
This stock behaved perfectly from pivot to pivot note how it tops at 15 then falls to 7.5 (exactly a 50% retracment). Then it regains 15 on two strong spikes of CONSEC UPDAYS.  The stock then blew past the 15 pivot on another CONSEC UPDAY spike before blowing past 20.

Note here that the SHANNON signal was almost noiseless during the first runup but after the 50% shakeout look at how much more incoherent the signal had become. The SHANNON signal did its job perfectly here showing that the market was much less sure this run up which is what the professionals wanted before letting it go higher.

SOME ONE WANTED TO ACCUMULATE MORE STOCK BEFORE LETTING IT RUN UP.

ISIS20130423

Very neat basing around pivot points (heck lets call them strange attractors like in Chaos Theory) the market prices are ping-ponging off the pivot levels. Note the dive down to 3 and then back up bracketed by the spikes in the reddish CONSEC DOWNDAYS  towards 3 dollars and the blue-ish CONSEC UPDAYS spikes away from 3 dollars.

WE CALL THIS NON-RANDOM ACTVITY.

CADX20130423

Pharmacyclics, Inc. and Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Both of these stocks show what a coherent price pattern is supposed to look like in the SHANNON signal, look at how little noise there is in both stocks until the recent correction. And yes the prices are at first gravitating towards one pivot level, and then being repelled from the next while heading higher and higher.

BY NOW YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED  THAT THERE ARE KEY NUMBERS THAT (ACTIVE/LEADING) STOCKS RESPOND TO AND THAT MY CHARTS ARE CONSTRUCTED TO HIGHLIGHT THEM .

INFI 20130423

PCYC 20130423

ENJOY!!!